Can double-digit underdog BYU pull off September surprise vs. SMU?

DALLAS — Some of the most memorable, and improbable, wins in Kalani Sitake’s nine-year tenure at BYU have come in the month of September.
Since Sitake replaced Bronco Mendenhall in 2016, BYU has upset the likes of Arizona (twice), Wisconsin, Tennessee, USC, Utah, Baylor and Arkansas in September as an underdog, sometimes a touchdown-plus underdog.
Don’t look now, but BYU is a hefty 10.5-point underdog Friday night against also-undefeated SMU here in Big D, although the Cougars are 4-0 all-time against the Mustangs. Kickoff is at 5 p.m. MDT at intimate, 32,000-seat Gerald J. Ford Stadium, and the nonconference matchup will be televised by ESPN2.
Can BYU rekindle some past September magic? Or will SMU’s home-field advantage, explosive offense and momentum from a standout season in 2023 propel it past a BYU team that hasn’t won a college football road game in nearly a year?
Even Sitake knows the task at hand is daunting; Southern Methodist (2-0) has won nine straight home games, and scored an average of 53.9 points per game in those mostly lopsided affairs.
“I know they are a really explosive team, and are favored in this game,” Sitake said Monday. “This is an opportunity for our guys to get in there and figure out ways to get better, and improve.”
But can they win? Most analysts aren’t giving them much of a chance. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives BYU only a 21% chance of emerging victorious. That’s lower than the Cougars’ current chances of beating No. 11 Utah on Nov. 9 in Salt Lake City (23.1%).
The Cougars’ lowest chance of winning, according to FPI, is at UCF on Oct. 26 (17.7%).
SMU coach Rhett Lashlee is also playing the underdog card, noting that schools transitioning from the Group of Five level to the Power Four level, as SMU is doing, going from the AAC to the ACC, often struggle their first year.
The Cougars know all about that, having gone 2-7 in their inaugural Big 12 campaign last year, 5-7 overall.
“They are a good team,” acknowledged BYU defensive end Isaiah Bagnah. “We have that (same) kind of mindset. We have a chip on our shoulder. We have to come out and perform and show what kind of team we are this year. So with that being said, it is cool that they are new in a (P4) conference as well.”
Speaking of September surprises, BYU is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games as a double-digit underdog. The most notable recent victories in the Sitake era when BYU wasn’t given much of a chance to win were last year’s 38-31 win at Arkansas, the 26-20 double-overtime win over Baylor in 2022 and the 26-17 win over No. 18 Utah in 2021.
Before that, BYU beat Tennessee and USC back-to-back in 2019 and No. 6 Wisconsin 24-21 in Madison in 2018. Of course, there has been some September sadness — blowout losses to LSU (27-0) and Wisconsin (40-6) in 2017.
SMU was less-than-impressive in a 29-24 win over Nevada as a 27-point favorite in its opener, giving BYU fans some hope that Friday’s game is winnable. But the Ponies were back to their old tricks last week, pounding Houston Christian 59-7 at home.
Don’t be fooled, Sitake said, reminding reporters that teams make their biggest improvement between their first and second games.
“You have to plan on teams being better and giving their best every week,” Sitake said. “We just have to imagine that every team is going to be better than what we see each week. I imagine Southern Illinois is going to be better next week and SMU is going to be better this week.
“They do have two games to our one, to go off of. We also have two games to watch and see what they do, even though this second game with them, they dominated the game from the beginning. I don’t think there is much to show there, other than we could see the personnel and the people that they have, and what we could see is a lot of talent.”
BYU unveiled some decent talent, too, albeit against an FCS opponent.
Quarterback Jake Retzlaff looked primed and ready to go and took care of the football after struggling with turnovers last year in the four games in which he started, all losses.
“I thought he played a really solid game,” said BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick. “Did a nice job, took care of the ball, was accurate. Solid start.”
Roderick said one of the things the BYU offense can do better is execute more efficiently in the red zone.
“We are trying to (figure out) how to finish those two drives in the second quarter,” he said. “I thought that was one thing we could have done better. Having no turnovers was one of the highlights of the game, but we did put the ball on the ground twice. Luckily we got them back. That’s something we can work on.”
Defensively, there’s quite a bit more to clean up — especially when it comes to slowing down the quarterback run game. SMU employs the run-pass option extensively in its offense, which doesn’t bode well for a BYU defense that allowed SIU quarterback DJ Williams to run wild.
“They like RPOs. They are good athletes, really good team, well-coached,” said BYU safety Talan Alfrey, a member of the 2022 BYU team that beat SMU 24-23 in the New Mexico Bowl. “So we are excited for the opportunity … to go down there and play against that type of style.
“I was part of the team in the bowl game that was able to play against that offense. That was fun to be a part of that. … It will be a challenge, but we have been coached well in how to handle those, so we are excited to execute that.”
As part of the scheduling agreement that was signed last October, SMU will return the game in Provo in 2027.